The political trend lines look bad for Democrats
Posted by Bill Dupray
on Oct 5 2009 Filed under Politics.
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We look at and report on a lot of polls as they come out each week. Some break new highs or lows and those become the major stories of the day. But most do not move the dial very much and, as a single data point, don’t tell us a lot. But the trend charts of those polls, on the other hand, are great tools.
Pollster.com has a lot of cool graphs of specific political races and issues and they aggregate polls. It is better than Real Clear Politics, which has the same polls but not the graphs. If you are a blogger, the site is really great, because instead of having to take a screenshot of the graph to use in a post, they have embed codes ready to go. You can also click the graphs in the blog post, which link back to Pollster.com, where you can look at the underlying data.
It has been 11 months since The One was elected and vowed to “fundamentally transform America.” Well, he is trying to do that, but hasn’t succeeded in anything other than passing an $800 billion pork bill and raising the cigarette tax. Everything else, from Gitmo, to Cap and Trade, to Afghanistan, to Health Care has been either a failure or is an impending failure. Those policies that gave the Democrat Party wings in 2008 have in 2009 turned into cement shoes that are dragging them to the bottom.
The trends tell the tale.
Here is the Virginia governor’s race, which, taking place 4 weeks from tomorrow and given the trend, is probably over.
Here is the New Jersey governor’s race. This one is getting tight, but I might just note that unless Republican Chris Christie completely flames out, he should pull out the win, because John Corzine hasn’t polled above 42% in any poll in more than a year.
The health care debate seems to be stable, with Americans opposing the Democrats’ plans by 50-46. The interesting thing here is that while the margin is settling in at about 4%, each side seems to be hardening its position since the flip from approval to disapprove in early July.
There doesn’t seem to be any hardening of positions on Obama’s job approval numbers. They are in free-fall.
Obama went from an approval of 65 and disapproval of 23 on Inauguration Day, a spread of +42 points, to 51-45 today, a spread of +6. So in 8 short months he has lost 36% in approval. That is 4.5% per month. If my math is correct, and the Democrats do not change their ways, Obama will have a net negative approval rating by Thanksgiving. After that, all bets are off on how low he can go.
One observation on the approval numbers. Pollster.com includes the NYT/CBS poll in the mix of polls to get the average. That poll is so hilariously partisan, with sample weighting so lopsided in favor of the Democrats, that whenever we see it we just point and laugh. It is utterly worthless and should not be included in any group of credible polls. If they dropped that poll from the list along with Gallup, which inexplicably continues to poll registered voters as opposed to likely voters, the numbers would look even worse for The One.
I know the liberals will come right back and say that if you took Rasmussen out, the numbers would be better for Obama, but the cool thing about polling is that, as far as elections go, some pollsters are actually better than others. And Rasmussen is the best, nailing the 2008 election results right on the head. To bolster my point about the NYT/CBS poll not being even worthwhile to use as fishwrap, in the same study that found Rasmussen to be the most accurate of the top 20 pollsters, the NYT/CBS poll finished 19th out of 20, with Gallup nearby at 17.
With all this bad news for the Democrats showing so clearly in the polls, you would think they might change tack and move a little to the middle. They can refuse to believe that the American people have lost faith in them, but denial is not a plan. I frankly hope they keep doing what they are doing. When the polls finally turn into election results next year, it will be lots of fun to see the finger pointing and recriminations on the left. Those of us on the right will just note that we predicted it more than a year in advance, and that the left at the time arrogantly and in their inimitably caustic way dismissed us as wingnuts.
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Short URL: http://libertypundits.net/?p=7224
Great analysis, Bill. I think that I’m going to print and frame those graphs. And I, too, hope that the Democrats continue to listen to their inner-authoritarian and carry on doing what they’re doing, rather than moderating their far-Left impulses.
These people are big-time professional politicians, whom, you would think, surely must have a plan somewhere in all this confusion. In some meeting somewhere, some colleague has to have asked Nancy Pelosi, “how to we pull this off and not all become unemployed next year?” She would presumably have three possible answers: (1) If we pass something, anything, this year, people will love us for fixing it, regardless of the merits of the thing; (2) If we don’t pass something this year, our base will be pissed and we won’t get any money next year; or (3) Well, regardless of what happens to you next year, you little shit, I will be reelected. Now now get out of my office, you make me sick.
I am thinking that all three of these things have happened in her office, which would explain the Keystone Cops routine over on the left.
You would think so, wouldn’t you?
Except that I imagine that any concerns about the possibility of (2) quickly became a casualty of Democratic arrogance and hubris in believing their own propaganda, with (3) remaining the overriding concern for a great many of our elected representatives, leaving (1) as the basis for action.
And that whole something-is-better-than-nothing routine is about as intelligent as it sounds.
Utter incompetents, one and all.