Quinnipiac has Corzine up by 5, but their final 2008 poll numbers also sucked

Posted by Bill Dupray on Oct 28 2009 Filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

So we have the poll, showing Corzine up 43-38. But as Jim Geraghty points out, they also had Obama winning last year by 23. The final margin was only 15. They also had Sen. Frank Lautenberg beating his rival by 22, and he only won by 14.

So last year Quinnipiac was off by 8 points in favor of the Democrats. And that was a year when the Dems were jazzed to get to the polls. As of today, Corzine leads by 5 which, if we apply the “Q minus 8″ factor, Christie wins by 3. And if the turnout is any different, and I am thinking it will be very different this year, those 3 points might be much lower than Christie’s final margin of victory.