Projected EV Changes Good News for Pubs
Posted by Clyde Middleton
on Dec 23 2008 Filed under Politics.
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A new study is projecting the shape of the Electoral Vote distribution following the 2010 reapportionment.
From the article:
Election Data Services, projects that Texas will pick up three seats in Congress. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Utah would gain one seat each. Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania would each lose one.
How do these changes stack up for pubs?
The projections offer a glimmer of hope for congressional Republicans, battered after losing 51 House seats in the last two election cycles. Of the eight states it says are likely to lose seats, seven will be represented by majority-Democratic delegations at the beginning of the 111th Congress. Meanwhile, three of the six fast-growing states have majority GOP delegations — and President Bush won all six states in both 2000 and 2004.
Remember, the 2010 Senate cycle is about evenly split between dems (17) and pubs (19). The 2012 cycle is bad, bad news for dems (24 v. only 9 pubs).
Add to that mixture a slightly altered House mix from the above, and things are looking structurally good. Now we just need to get the pubs ready to actually govern in a conservative way.
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