Obama Is Losing This Election As We Speak [Reader Post]

Posted by Publius Right on Jul 23 2008 Filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

The recent glory-roll of Senator Obama will turn out to be the classic blunder that puts Senator McCain in the White House.

Note the recent Ohio polling from Rasmussen (which, notably, has McCain up by six to ten points):

Economic issues are most important to 49% of Ohio voters while national security concerns are the top priority for 24%. Obama has an eighteen point advantage among those most concerned with economic issues while McCain leads 79% to 21% among those who focus primarily on national security issues.

Okay — so with TWICE as many voters that are focused on economics, he walks away from enhancing an 18-point advantage, when he is down FIFTY EIGHT points on foreign policy?! Every kitchen table voter is worth TWO national security voters, and he has little chance of moving any of the latter by cramming for the test. Mind you, the reviews of this magical mystery tour are decidedly mixed. When you can’t sell it to Katie Couric, who’s buying?

Obama has chosen to attempt to mitigate his weakness rather than play to his strength. Not only is this a bad strategy in general — champions are champions precisely because they have one truly stellar ability, not because they are above-average across the board — but it draws the focus to the very issue that helps his opponent more. While few minds will be changed about Obama’s experience in foreign policy by this glamorous field trip, not many many minds will be distracted from high gas prices and a spectrum of other kitchen-table issues to think, again, about Israel, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia … and any day that people think of these things is a good day for McCain.

Meanwhile, the McCain campaign is running a killer ad (at least in Virginia, and presumably in other contested states) about the price of gasoline. This is also a winner for McCain in the recent Ohio numbers.

Sixty-four percent (64%) support offshore oil drilling while 22% are opposed. These figures are close to the national average. Fifty-four percent (54%) say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Just 28% disagree and say protecting the environment is more important. A recent national survey showed that Al Gore’s proposals for clean energy are viewed by voters as unrealistic and costly.

Conventional wisdom is that kitchen-table issues naturally benefit Democrats. Let’s treat that as an assumption. The Obama position on this is nearly a 3 to 1 loser right now. Wouldn’t you think it made more sense to shore up the natural advantage on economics? The best and strongest way to do this is to get on the right side of the gasoline issue, and the next best would be to try to offer a real alternative to drilling and change the argument. Even if Obama and the Dems refuse to take off the green-tinted glasses, the campaign could be spending this very valuable time shifting the economic focus to more general pocketbook issues. They’re doing none of that right now, because they’re too busy trying to pretend Obama has suddenly become Kissinger.

Obama has almost every imaginable advantage – except the advantage of actually being right on the issues – and it’s NOT HELPING. Obama is consistently underperforming the GENERIC DEMOCRAT (RCP average generic Congressional is over 11% Democrat; RCP average Obama vs. McCain is under 5%) — when he’s supposedly the second coming of Jim Morrison, MLK, JFK, RFK and every other acronymous hero you can name.

We will look back at this decision, born of the self-perpetuating arrogance of the Obama campaign, and know that this is when and how he blew it.

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