Israeli Elections February 2009

Posted by Clyde Middleton on Feb 8 2009 Filed under Israel, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

Go here for Election day news.

UPDATE. Feb 9. Latest internal polling: The secret polls run by the parties show Binyamin Netanyahu’s opposition Likud holding a steady lead at 28 minus (out of 120 Knesset seats) Monday, Feb. 9, despite all-out, last-ditch campaigning for Tuesday’s general election. Foreign minister Tzipi Livni’s Kadima has gained one seat from 23 to 24 at the expense of Ehud Barak’s Labor, which has dropped from 18 to 13-14 since Sunday. Dark horse right-wing Israel Beitenu headed by Avigdor Lieberman still rising from 17 to 19.

UPDATE. The IDF is getting cranky with the Ehud Twins and Livni about concessions to Hamas. Good news for Bibi.

PRE-ELECTION UPDATE. Feburary 8. As we said below, although Bibi was cranking along, two weeks is a long time in politics. He still seems to have the most seats, but things are tightening in a few ways.

After being ridiculed as a liar by Livni, Little Ehud has actually endorsed Kadima. This comes after Bibi saw the polls tightening and withdrew his own pledge to retain him defense minister.

The central theme now seems to be the US role – Mitchell’s practically useless presence and now Biden talking up the Saudi plan. Every one seems to be suggesting the a divided Jerusalem and existing the Golan Heights are on the table – except Bibi. It’s bound to win him some votes on that issue alone.

Lieberman is playing the wild card befitting a pluralistic democracy. It’s a real power source for him – he can make or break a coalition. But he seems to have overplayed his stage presence. His own MKs say they will back Likud. In fact, Likud holds a couple seat majority in the latest polls – typically a sure bet to be asked by the president to form the next government. But the request to form goes to the party most likely to be able to do it, and because of a few minority parties speaking out that seems to be Likud and Bibi at present even if Likud comes up short.

We don’t think the Olmert endorsement of Livni means anything. They are the exact same leadership as is in place now – the very one that pulled the last punch on Hamas. Israelis are not happy with that.

Lieberman’s folly seems just that. His baggage from old an criminal investigation getting new life seems to limit the role he can play – if any – in the Cabinet. So he is looking to maximize his power by other means.

At this stage, less than 48 hours before the polls open, it seems that Kamida needs a 3+ seat victory to be able to demand the opportunity to form the next government. That’s a tall order. But it also explains why stories of Schalit’s release have been circulating – anything to win, eh, Livni?

UPDATE 4. Feb 1 v2. Bibi’s lead is widening. According to a source in Israel Beiteinu, the poll predicted that the Likud would win some 30 seats, Kadima 21-22, Israel Beiteinu 17-18 and Labor 16. But Israel Beiteinu’s voters were the most intense in their support and therefore most likely to vote, while Kadima’s were the least likely to do so.

UPDATE 3. Feb 1. This is dumb: “Kadima leader Tzipi Livni said over the weekend that men work inefficiently to tally up extra hours at work.” Could you imagine the backlash in politics if a man said a similar thing? Why do women think they have privilege to put down our gender? This is precisely WHY a perception of a difference exists – because people like Livni won’t shut up about it.

Bibi’s election is looking more and more certain. We wrote before that Livni was putting her election hopes in the hands of Hamas acting well. Seems she is feeling the pinch of reality:

A senior member of the ruling Kadima party was quoted as saying Friday that the dovish camp’s situation in the election “appears bad, and in fact, the battle appears to be lost,” according to a report in News1.

“The renewed attacks by terror organizations in Gaza are pushing voters to the Right bloc,” he said, “especially to Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu.”

Is it really that bad? Seems so:

Senior ministers from Kadima are plotting to remove Tzipi Livni from the party’s top spot in anticipation of Kadima’s expected loss in the February 10 elections.

According to a report by journalist Yoav Yitzchak in News1, the process of removing Livni will be put in motion immediately after the elections – assuming the party does indeed take a beating – unless Livni resigns from the position of her own accord.

Yitzchak says that these ministers are currently biding their time quietly and abstaining from any public pronouncements because they believe that “Kadima, which currently has 29 Knesset members, is about to be routed, but in the current circumstances there is nothing to do but try and cut the losses.”

The Israeli Elections post has poll data. Bibi is only getting stronger. Labor and Lieberman have joined him. This election is over … but February 10 is a political lifetime away.

UPDATE 2. January 28. The shrill screams of a dying candidate: “If Netanyahu becomes prime minister, we will lose our ability to recruit the United States against Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas,” Kadima head and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni told Haaretz in an exclusive interview. If Likud wins the election, “our ability to put together an international coalition against those threats will be affected immediately.”

UPDATE 1. Mitchell seen as blatant attempt to interfere with elections. If National Union, being this boisterous, joins the coalition discussed below, the government is virtually formed before the election. But two weeks is still a long time in politics. Further, Lieberman says Mitchell is just wrong – no chance of success. Mitchell has always wanted West Bank settlements to end. Bibi and Lieberman say they have nothing to do with peace. And Lieberman should know – he lives there.

This article has good information on keeping Jerusalem unified and administration of holy sites. Coalition with National Union confirmed: After Netanyahu’s Jerusalem Conference speech, he convened with his fellow party member Dr. Yuval Steinitz and Ichud Leumi (National Union) party Chairman Yaakov Katz. Katz asked the Likud chairman what his plans are for a coalition after the Israel elections. Netanyahu responded, “We will establish a broad coalition based on all the Zionist parties – blue and orange.” [Orange is the color associated with the Ichud Leumi (National Union) party and its supporters].

ORIGINAL ARTICLE:

It’s beginning to look a lot like Bibi! If you recall from the Operation Cast Lead post, Livni put her lot with political expediency – and had to rely on Hamas behaving well. They didn’t, they ain’t, and she’s going to pay a price. Two smaller parties, Shas and Israel Beiteinu, are throwing their weight behind Bibi, who heads the Likud party and should be the new PM of Israel on March 2, 2009. Best of luck, Hamas – let me know how it works out for you. Let’s go through the details of the Israeli election process, the latest polls, and assign some seats.

The Israeli political system is centered on the Knesset, similar to our House of Representatives, except there is no 2d body like our Senate. Every one of the 120 seats is up for election, but here’s the fundamental difference from our system: Israelis vote only for a party, not a person. Each voter gets one vote.

Seats are assigned to parties based upon the percentage of the total vote they receive. There are no subdivisions of votes within the country as we have tallies by state or congressional district.

When you see articles about Israeli politicians being announced for upcoming elections, they are typically called out as “Person has been named Knesset 12th for Party, or “Person is 12st slot for Party.” They toss around the word “guaranteed” if the person is safely within the number of seats to be won. In out example, if after the ballots are counted that party wins 11 seats, our guy goes back to the vineyards.

There are so many parties, that no single party wins a majority of the seats – in fact, it has not yet happened in the history of modern Israel. The party winning by a plurality, however, is usually given (by the President) the opportunity to form a government by forming allegiances with other parties – simple majority of 61+ seats needed. This is where Shas and Israel Beiteinu are already critically important to Likud. There’s some time constraints and twists and turns, but we’ll save those for when we watch the post-election action.

Another advantage of winning by a plurality and forming the government is that the head of that party, Bibi for Likud, for example, becomes the Prime Minister.

The President of Israel is elected by Knesset. To under how much a figurehead the occupier of this position is, scan your memory for much press Shimon Peres has gotten during Operation Cast Lead. Enough said. The Prime Minister runs the government.

There’s a total of 34 political parties in Israel. This table lists the major ones, along with their major players and current Knesset seats:

Other parties: Israel Hazaka, Or, Green Leaf, Tzomet – None hold seats or have impact players.

The head of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, Avigdor Lieberman, is an interesting guy. The constituents of the party are Russian Jews, who are rabid Pro-Israel and it seems equally so Anti-Arab. There was a recent political war inside Israel during Cast Lead when some of the Arab parties’ members in the Knesset starting yapping the wrong way. They were stripped of their ability to run in the February 2009 election (remember, parties run not people). The matter went quickly to the Israel Supreme Court which reinstated their inclusion. Lieberman spoke quite directly to the Arab MKs: “You are lucky that we don’t treat our political rivals the way Hamas treats its rivals.” Turning to reporters, he asked: “Do we want to give someone a license to kill Israel, from a Jewish and democratic aspect?” Lieberman added that “the debate should have ended at the Central Election Committee; I regret that it reached the High Court.”

I’m pretty clear on his message.

Since he’s going to be a major player in Bibi’s government, let’s learn Lieberman’s take on the “safe passage” issue than Obama seemed to announce will happen during his recent Arab TV interview: In the statement, the Yisrael Beiteinu MKs rejected the construction of a “safe passage” between the West Bank and Gaza. “The state of Israel will not allow passage between Gaza and Judea and Samaria that transverses its sovereign territory,” the Jerusalem Post quoted from statement. “This situation is congruent with the one that existed prior to June 4 1967.”

I’m pretty clear on this message, too. Seems Obama has some talking to do.

How much do the Yisrael Beiteinu party voters dislike Hamas, et al.? This much: Almost 90 percent of the survey’s participants said they found the war did not meet its initial objectives. Unlike the army – which this time around enjoyed high esteem among respondents – the government was again seen to have performed poorly. Almost 75 percent of the people surveyed ranked its performance somewhere between “sufficiently capable” and “poor.”

They want more.

How close is Lieberman to Bibi? This close: Lieberman’s favorable standing is complemented by a relatively protected political position, guaranteed by his non-aggression pact with Netanyahu, at a time when the political arena is once again beginning to resemble a boxing ring. Likewise, Kadima campaign strategists have also decided to lay off of Lieberman.

Lieberman is looking strong as a two-tier player – and in plurality elections, the 2d tier is the deal maker.

This is from the latest polls: The surveys give Likud some 29 seats in the 120-member parliament compared with about 25 for Kadima. Such a margin would leave Netanyahu well-placed to form a coalition government that could include partnerships with Kadima or Labour, as well as smaller religious and minority-interest groups.

And here: In the race for 120 seats in parliament, polls conducted in the last week gave Netanyahu’s Likud Party a lead of three to 12 seats over Livni’s centrist Kadima party, headed by Olmert until corruption scandals forced him to call elections a year ahead of schedule. / Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s left-leaning Labor Party, a junior partner in the governing coalition, is far back in the polls, even though the Gaza offensive helped Barak, as well as Livni, gain sharply higher personal approval ratings. / Although the standing of the three leading parties has changed little since the offensive, the extreme right-wing Israel Is Our Home [Yisrael Beiteinu] party has gained, pulling even with Labor in third place.

Labor is aligning with Likud so Ehud Barak can keep his job as Defense Minister. Add Stas and Yisrael Beiteinu to the mix, and you have 54 of the current 120 seats. Change the seats to match the current polls, and 61 seats is not hard to find. Finally, Livni/Kadima is tanking, Barak/Labor is rising, Bibi/Likud is leading overall, and Lieberman/Yisrael is rising.

Seems that nothing can stop Bibi. But two weeks is a very long time in politics.

A quick aside … how odd can a plurality government and all the alliances be? This odd: Perhaps the most unusual alliance in this year’s election is between the Green Leaf Party, which has no seats in the Knesset, and the Pensioners’ Party, which has six. Renamed the Holocaust Survivors’ and Grown-Up Green Leaf Party, the party’s prime issues are legalizing marijuana and pensioners’ rights, especially those of Holocaust survivors. One of the party’s TV ads shows party head Gil Kopatch smoking a joint at the grave of Israel’s first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion.

Very odd, indeed.

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