Israeli Election Today

Posted by Clyde Middleton on Feb 10 2009 Filed under Israel, Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

Well, ok, another update. 90% of the vote counted now. Livni in deep trouble. Kamida leads by just one mandate – 28-27. Bibi will pick up at least one in the military vote. It’s Bibi/Likud’s day.

Last Update – Bibi is giving a victory speech right now. I agree. Livni’s Kadima did not win by a large enough number. Bibi will also pick up one or two seats from the military votes. I don’t see how Olmert can ask anyone but Bibi to form the next government.

Previous Updates – Reports are coming out that Bibi and Lieberman are talking about forming a coalition. Livni seems out of the loop. UPDATE – Lieberman says he also spoke with Livni. Keeping all options open, it seems.

Scenarios developing. 1. Lieberman heading the top 2d tier party pieces together a coalition. It’s possible only if Labor doesn’t join Likud. Lieberman is also a divisive person that would have to virtually extort another major party like Kadima to join him. 2. Livni forms a government. Her challenge is the religious parties and their devotion to Bibi. Remember as well that Livni was previously given an opportunity to form a government but failed. This weakness still haunts her. 3. Bibi forms a government. To cement this option he needs either Lieberman or Labor. That gives him options and seems the most likely. The strength of his position will be clear if he gets within 1 or 2 mandates of Kadima after the military vote is counted. Another solution is Likud convinces Kadima to join – that would require only Shas to form a government.

To further the likelihood that Bibi will be the next PM, I am watching Israeli television – their conclusion is that Livni doesn’t have enough support, even with the exit poll data, to be asked to be form the next government.

MORE EXIT POLLS. SAME STORY. Kadima up but not enough to overcome Nationalist bloc. “According to Channel 1, the right-wing bloc won 63 Knesset seats and the left wing 57; Channel 2 predicted 64 for the right and 56 for the left; and Channel 10 predicted 63 and 57 like Channel 1. / The Channel 1 poll showed Kadima winning 30 mandates, and Likud trailing closely behind with 28 seat. Israel Beiteinu was predicted to earn 14 mandates, and Labor was slated to get 13 seats. ”

One additional point – the votes of soldiers are counted on a slight delay, so tonight’s results are probably the best Kadima will do. Likud should pull disproportionately from that pool.

EARLIEST EXIT POLL DATA. Kadima 27 seats, Likud 25, Yisreal Beiteinu 15, Labor 13. This is a surprise that Kadima is showing so strong – but exit polls are more interesting than reliable. However, important to note is the grouping of parties between Nationalist and Leftwing Blocs. Nationalist include Likud – looking at 67 seats in the exit polls. Leftwing includes Kadima at a total of 53 seats.

Readers – today is election day in Israel. The next Prime Minister will be either Bibi or Livni. Although the Israeli press continues to say that it is too close to call, we are sticking with our prediction that Bibi’s Likud party will win a plurality by at least 3 seats and will be asked by the president to form the next government. The wild card is Lieberman and the strength his party shows. It seems that they will push Barak’s Labor party to 4th in seats. That is quite remarkable.

Our coverage will begin at 3:00PM with exit polling data, and switch at 4:00PM to returns as they start to come in.

For background, go to this post.

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http://rkdpolitics.blogspot.com/ Arkady

So Livni edged out Bibi and therefore Bibi wins? This is because Bibi/Lieberman > Livni? Man, this is confusing.
http://rkdpolitics.blogspot.com/ Arkady

So Livni edged out Bibi and therefore Bibi wins? This is because Bibi/Lieberman > Livni? Man, this is confusing.
Clyde

couple of points. citizens votes for parties, not candidates. the entire system runs off their legislative body, which has 120 seats. there were 33 parties running. no one party has ever won 61+ seats, so every government has been a coalition.

likud’s coalition counts to the high 60s – maybe 67 by the time they are done. kamida’s tops at mid-50s.

kamida therefore had to win by more than just a couple of seats to be able to build a 61+ coalition – and it didn’t.

the opporunity to form the government – a party is given the nod by the president and has 30 days to do it – is given to that party deemed most likely to be able to do it.

with the numbers as is, that seems to be likud … but they are still counting votes, so it could change!
Clyde

couple of points. citizens votes for parties, not candidates. the entire system runs off their legislative body, which has 120 seats. there were 33 parties running. no one party has ever won 61+ seats, so every government has been a coalition.

likud’s coalition counts to the high 60s – maybe 67 by the time they are done. kamida’s tops at mid-50s.

kamida therefore had to win by more than just a couple of seats to be able to build a 61+ coalition – and it didn’t.

the opporunity to form the government – a party is given the nod by the president and has 30 days to do it – is given to that party deemed most likely to be able to do it.

with the numbers as is, that seems to be likud … but they are still counting votes, so it could change!
arkady

Ok got it makes sense. Seems like both Likud and Kadima are extremely close, so it depends on who can form a coalition with Lieberman’s party plus the few little miscellanous ones. Israeli politics sure is complicated I am just hoping Bibi becomes PM.
arkady

Ok got it makes sense. Seems like both Likud and Kadima are extremely close, so it depends on who can form a coalition with Lieberman’s party plus the few little miscellanous ones. Israeli politics sure is complicated I am just hoping Bibi becomes PM.
Clyde

i think bibi has it now. likud will probably tie kadima when all the votes are counted, and they have the nationalist parties backing them. i also think lieberman may not be needed – although he has now said that he prefers the nationalists party bloc. i think that’s gamesmanship. labor is the party fighting for its life – and they may take any deal to be a part of the new government … that would cut the need for lieberman’s mandates.

it is a much different system from ours, that’s for sure.
Clyde

i think bibi has it now. likud will probably tie kadima when all the votes are counted, and they have the nationalist parties backing them. i also think lieberman may not be needed – although he has now said that he prefers the nationalists party bloc. i think that’s gamesmanship. labor is the party fighting for its life – and they may take any deal to be a part of the new government … that would cut the need for lieberman’s mandates.

it is a much different system from ours, that’s for sure.
civis americanus

BIBI!!!
civis americanus

BIBI!!!
civis americanus

Clyde… heard from Israeli friends that it’s Bibi’s night.
They are concerned he will have problems with Obama.
This is a good tonic for November hangover.
There is hope for the world, after all.
civis americanus

Clyde… heard from Israeli friends that it’s Bibi’s night.
They are concerned he will have problems with Obama.
This is a good tonic for November hangover.
There is hope for the world, after all.
Clyde

hey civis, tis bibi, yes. the military vote counted over the next few days will give him the most mandates overall – and livni’s bloc wasn’t enough unless she pounded bibi.

the thought is in the back of my mind is lieberman. i frankly think he overplayed his hand. i can see bibi playing labor off of him. labor is toast unless they are part of this government – the party might just dry up, so they’ll pay any price.

obama is going to have his hands full. iran is going to press him hard. should be interesting to see what balance he tries to strike.

mitchell has just got to leave. a $2 billion tunnel connecting the occupied lands? making the religious sites international? wtf times, like, 234. the man’s an idiot.
Clyde

hey civis, tis bibi, yes. the military vote counted over the next few days will give him the most mandates overall – and livni’s bloc wasn’t enough unless she pounded bibi.

the thought is in the back of my mind is lieberman. i frankly think he overplayed his hand. i can see bibi playing labor off of him. labor is toast unless they are part of this government – the party might just dry up, so they’ll pay any price.

obama is going to have his hands full. iran is going to press him hard. should be interesting to see what balance he tries to strike.

mitchell has just got to leave. a $2 billion tunnel connecting the occupied lands? making the religious sites international? wtf times, like, 234. the man’s an idiot.
civis americanus

Agree with you about Lieberman. I hear that the push to get Gilad Shalit released just prior to election was responsible for larger Kadima result than predicted. Good strategy by Livni; but they do not have ace up their sleeve like Bibi will – all know he will draw a hard and fast line in the sand re Hamas and Hezbollah. Methinks that the end failure to secure his release says plenty about how PM Livni would have been treated by Egypt et al.
Someone should put Mitchell down, and take the rest of us out of our misery. The idea that Israel should hand over the Religious Sites is just insanity. They have never denied any access, unlike when Jordan had control.
Iran sending that satellite into space successfully has sparked major concerns in Israel. Obama is dancing with the devil.
Nice to see Labour go down; but I can not forget that without them – there would have been no Israel.
civis americanus

Agree with you about Lieberman. I hear that the push to get Gilad Shalit released just prior to election was responsible for larger Kadima result than predicted. Good strategy by Livni; but they do not have ace up their sleeve like Bibi will – all know he will draw a hard and fast line in the sand re Hamas and Hezbollah. Methinks that the end failure to secure his release says plenty about how PM Livni would have been treated by Egypt et al.
Someone should put Mitchell down, and take the rest of us out of our misery. The idea that Israel should hand over the Religious Sites is just insanity. They have never denied any access, unlike when Jordan had control.
Iran sending that satellite into space successfully has sparked major concerns in Israel. Obama is dancing with the devil.
Nice to see Labour go down; but I can not forget that without them – there would have been no Israel.
Clyde

i agree, labour is owed a debt. perhaps bibi will recognize that. before the election, vis-a-vis shalit, i wrote, “anything to win, eh, livni?” i almost took it out, but it was my feelings so it stayed. forget what post. it’s too bad, too. i had high hopes for her, but i think she is playing out of her league.

check the post i just did on syria. obama is being pushed around. i wonder how long it will take him to call W and ask if he wants the job back.
Clyde

i agree, labour is owed a debt. perhaps bibi will recognize that. before the election, vis-a-vis shalit, i wrote, “anything to win, eh, livni?” i almost took it out, but it was my feelings so it stayed. forget what post. it’s too bad, too. i had high hopes for her, but i think she is playing out of her league.

check the post i just did on syria. obama is being pushed around. i wonder how long it will take him to call W and ask if he wants the job back.

Israeli Election Today

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