Is the public option Reid’s attempt to shore up a sagging reelection bid?

Posted by Bill Dupray on Oct 26 2009 Filed under Politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can leave a response or trackback to this entry

He couldn’t possibly be doing this for selfish political reasons, could he? If so, it makes you wonder how he thinks screwing over the elderly with $500 billion in Medicare cuts, forcing people to buy insurance as a condition of being alive in the United States (or face a fine and jail time), and saddling individuals and businesses with $400 billion in new taxes is a good move for a reelection bid. But that is exactly what some Democrats are wondering.

“As soon as we get the bill back from CBO and people have a chance to look at it, which we’ll have ample time to do that, I believe we clearly will have the support of my caucus to move to this bill and start legislating,” Reid said.

The notion was met with deep skepticism in the Senate, where each senator holds the power to torpedo a bill. Democratic aides speculated that Reid’s decision was motivated in part by electoral considerations. He faces a tough reelection next year, and this move is bound to shore up his left flank, which has derided him over the years as cautious and too willing to compromise.

This doesn’t seem to be a very good gamble for a guy who represents Las Vegas. Lots of folks are very skeptical of whether he can get 60 votes.

The move amounted to a major gamble by the Nevada Democrat, who is betting that he can sway the last few moderates onto his plan for a public option that would allow states to opt out by 2014.

But at the same time, Democratic Senate aides expressed worries that Reid was going too far, too fast with a strategy that allows no room for error. . . .

But the task ahead for Reid is steep, and at this point, even expert Senate vote-counters say there’s no way to know if Reid can pull it off. It all comes down to moderates — and Reid’s skill at convincing them the opt-out plan is not the budget-busting Big Government health takeover many worry about.

The early signs are not encouraging for Reid.

Two Democratic holdouts, Sens. Ben Nelson of Nebraska and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, have refused to commit to voting either way on the bill until they review it. And Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine, the mostly likely Republican to support the bill, has said it would be “difficult” to support any bill with a government insurance option.

Even the New York Times, not exactly a right-wing naysayer, thinks the tea leaves may tell a different story.

Opponents of the public option have argued that it should be left out of the bill and that supporters should be forced to offer an amendment to add it to the legislation. In either case, winning 60 votes would seem to be a steep hurdle. . . .

Pressed on whether he could advance the bill with the public option included, Mr. Reid said he believed Senate Democrats would remain united to do so. “I believe we clearly will have the support of my caucus to move to this bill and start legislating,” he said.

But other Democrats were not so sure. Even as liberal groups quickly began heaping praise on Mr. Reid for his decision to support a government-run plan, some Democrats on Capitol Hill privately expressed worries that he did not have firm commitments from all 60 Senate Democrats.

I think Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) called this one correctly. This has been Reid’s plan all along. He needs to cover his (and other Democrats’) left flank for reelection by offering the government option, but there is no chance it will pass. After it is defeated, Reid will send it back to have the provision stripped out. All of the Democrat hand-wringing over Reid’s “gamble,” is merely part of the plan to prepare their base for the coming bad news.

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