Evasive maneuvers: Dems react to crumbling polls
Posted by Clyde Middleton
on Oct 15 2009 Filed under Politics.
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In the Washington Post today, columnist George Will previews the growing opportunities for Republicans in 2010, highlighting several key Senate races where Republican prospects continue to brighten:
- Delaware: Demure Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution, but since then has not made many waves. It might, however, be part of a political wave a year from now, thanks to a direct descendant of Benjamin Franklin. The great man’s great-great-great-great-great grandson, Mike Castle, 70, a nine-term Delaware congressman, will be next year’s Republican nominee for the Senate seat Joe Biden held for 36 years. This and other candidate-recruitment successes make it reasonable for Republicans to hope that in January 2011 the Senate will contain fewer than 60 Democrats … Delaware has not elected a Republican senator since 1994, but Castle, who has never lost a race, has run statewide 12 times: once for lieutenant governor, twice for governor and nine times for the state’s only congressional seat. In the past four elections he averaged 65 percent of the vote.
- Colorado: In Colorado, where Democrats have won the last two Senate races, the appointed Democrat, Michael Bennet, faces a primary challenger, Andrew Romanoff, a former speaker of the state House. Annoyed because the governor did not appoint him to replace Salazar, Romanoff spurned the plea of a future Nobel Peace Prize winner that he not challenge Bennet. The Republican nominee may be a former statewide winner — Jane Norton, who served as lieutenant governor.
- Illinois: In Illinois, which has not elected a Republican senator since 1998, the front-runner for the GOP nomination is Mark Kirk, a five-term representative from the Chicago suburbs, where statewide elections often are decided.
- Connecticut: Connecticut’s Sen. Chris Dodd, seeking a sixth term, has an approval rating of 43 percent and has drawn several serious Republican challengers. Any incumbent with a job approval below 50 percent should worry; In Nevada, Harry Reid’s is below 40.
In the aftermath of the Finance Committee vote, Patrick O’Connor and Chris Frates of Politico report on the tepid support from moderate Democrat Senators on the health care bill. Senate Democrats took their newfound momentum for health reform into closed-door talks with White House aides Wednesday but still faced a months-old problem: centrist Democrats who aren’t sold on Obama-style reform even now. If Democratic leadership hoped Republican Olympia Snowe’s decision to cross party lines Tuesday would inspire her fellow middle-of-the-roaders, they were mistaken. And the moderates’ reluctance to commit showed just how far health reform still has to go, despite getting a boost from Tuesday’s Senate Finance Committee vote.
- Ben Nelson: Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson said his colleague from Maine wasn’t “forecasting what her future votes might be” when she cast the lone Republican vote for the Finance bill.
- Mark Pryor: Likewise, Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor, whose own stance on health care remains an open question, cautioned, “I think she’s been careful to say that she supports it coming out of committee, but no guarantees on final passage because it’s going to change quite a bit between now and then.”
- Evan Bayh: Sen. Evan Bayh (D., Ind.) said he wants to ensure that promised spending cuts — such as plans to trim Medicare payments — are locked in.
With Rory Reid getting set to kick off his Nevada gubernatorial bid, Chris Cillizza writes on the “dangers of dynastic politics,” especially prescient in this case given the elder Reid’s poor standing with Silver State voters. Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid’s (D) long-awaited announcement today that he would run for governor of Nevada in 2010 means that he and his father — Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) — will be on the same ballot next November. While both Reids downplay that rarest of occurrences, there is concern among some Democratic strategists that two Reids running statewide in 2010 is one too many for Nevada voters. “Given that Harry Reid is in trouble for having priorities other than Nevada, being on the ticket with his son is not a good thing,” said one senior Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly. Neither Reid starts their bid in particularly strong position. A recent Las Vegas Review-Journal poll showed Harry Reid trailing two little-known Republican challengers. In that same poll, Rory Reid placed third with 25 percent in a three-way matchup with former U.S. District Judge Brian Sandoval (R) and Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman who is weighing a bid as an independent.
Right on cue, the Reno Gazette-Journal reports on Rory’s efforts to distance himself from his unpopular father Reid’s campaign has distanced itself from his father’s campaign. Although the senator will be in Reno on Friday, he isn’t attending his son’s announcement Thursday evening. The campaign also is emphasizing Reid’s first name, on its Web site, stickers and other material so as not to confuse voters. Reid sidestepped questions about how often, if at all, he’ll campaign with his father, and questions about growing up in a political family and whether his father has been a role model for him.
Meanwhile, Sherman Frederick of the Las Vegas Review-Journal writes on the latest reason Reid has given the voters of Nevada to vote against him next fall. As I’ve been saying to anyone who cares to listen, there is a strong anti-Harry Reid wind blowing in Nevada. You can read it in the polls. You can see it on the bumper stickers. You can almost smell it. Yet, instead of doing anything about it, it’s almost as if Sen. Reid does things on purpose to erode his natural support in Nevada. Each day he does something of his own free will that gives Nevadans another reason to vote against him next November. It’s remarkable, really. For a guy who’s been a U.S. senator for almost four full terms, you’d think he’d remember how to maintain ties in his home state. Instead, he goes out of his way to cut them. Here’s just another in a long line of reasons why Harry Reid will be brought home in November 2010. For no good reason, Sen. Reid pokes his own faith-based support group in the eye.
When it comes to the contentious public option, there appears to trouble in paradise among Democrat Senate leaders, as noted by Rick Klein. Sen. Charles Schumer, the third-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership, made clear on MSNBC last night that inclusion of the public option is a decision that will fall to Reid … “It’s very important to see if a public option is in the bill that Leader Reid puts together,” Schumer continued. “He hasn’t yet made up his mind, but many of us who believe in the public option are urging him to do so, and so far we’re getting heard” … The pressure isn’t being received all that well in Reid’s camp. A source close to Reid e-mails this response: ” Perhaps Sen. Reid should consider giving Schumer the assignment to get 60 votes on the public plan of his choosing, since he says there is a groundswell of support for this idea.”
The rift between these two powerful Democrats is a far cry from days past:
- “I Work Very Closely With This Man.” (Erin Billings, “Schumer Reaps Rewards Of 2006,” Roll Call, 06/26/07)
- SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV): “We Worked Hand-In-Glove.” (Erin Billings, “Schumer Reaps Rewards Of 2006,” Roll Call, 06/26/07)
- SEN. CHUCK SCHUMER (D-NY): “Let’s put it this way, on my speed dial I have my family, my top staff people, my two best friends and Harry Reid.” (Erin Billings, “Schumer Reaps Rewards Of 2006,” Roll Call, 06/26/07)
Aaron Blake of The Hill reports on the remarkable news that Chris Dodd, a 30-year Senate incumbent who also chairs the powerful Banking Committee, was outraised in the third quarter by GOP frontrunner Rob Simmons. Former Rep. Rob Simmons (R-Conn.) outraised Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) in the third quarter, according to totals reported by their campaigns. Simmons announced earlier this week that he had raised $970,000 for the quarter, and Dodd just announced $900,000 raised. Perhaps to soften the bad news, Dodd’s campaign announced details of an Oct. 23 fundraiser with President Barack Obama in the same release. Dodd’s inferior quarter comes after his first-quarter report earned jeers for showing just five contributions from residents of Connecticut.
Also, in a sign that she’s not going anywhere and the divisive primary facing Ohio Democrats will continue, OH Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner is reshuffling her finance staff as her 3rd quarter report looms. Brunner campaign manager David Dettman acknowledged in an e-mail to The Hill: “We have parted ways with some folks at the staff level. We’re bringing in some new blood to help us with the fundraising, including adding some more experienced folks who specialize in raising money for women candidates.”
In New York, Dan Janison of Newsday picks up new polling numbers “looking bad” for the Paterson-appointed Kirsten Gillibrand among Long Island voters. The numbers look bad for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand – at first glance. She’s been in the U.S. Senate for nine months, drawn all the curiosity that a fresh face gets, enjoyed attentive support from senior Sen. Charles Schumer, and pushed a thousand ways to stay in the public eye. And yet, a Newsday/News 12/Siena poll shows 23 percent of Long Islanders surveyed gave her a favoable rating, with 27 percent unfavorable, and a glaring 50 percent saying they still don’t know enough to say.
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- Nevada Senate: Angle 50%, Reid 39%
- Uh Oh: Only 33% of Nevadans Would Vote to Re-elect Reid
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