Democrat Pollster: Low black turnout in 2010 may cost Democrats the House
Posted by Bill Dupray
on Oct 14 2009 Filed under Politics.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0.
You can leave a response or trackback to this entry
Obama’s election was an aberration. Nobody had ever motivated blacks to vote in such high numbers. The necessary corollary to that is that when he is not on the ticket, the Democrats’ numbers will be worse. So Democrats running in districts with higher than average numbers of black voters are watching Virginia and New Jersey for evidence that their margins of victory in 2010 might stay home on the couch.
From The Hill.
Democrats are bracing for a precipitous drop in black voter turnout next month and beyond.
Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors’ races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.
A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia’s governor’s race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year’s general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey’s black population unmoved about the off-year election.
Even Democrats see the coming train-wreck.
Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling, has been among the most outspoken. He said the high number of Democrats with districts that are significantly black means such a turnout shift could be disastrous for Democrats.
“If what looks like is going to happen in Virginia plays out on a national level, I do think Democrats will lose the House,” Jensen said.
House Democrats with black populations in their districts in the 25% or higher range are watching nervously. Because what few elections have taken place since November have not been pretty.
The limited evidence so far is a little frightening for Democrats. Apart from the voter models in Virginia’s governor’s race, Louisiana Democrats lost two December House races in significantly black districts — including one in majority-black New Orleans. And Georgia Democrats saw Senate nominee Jim Martin lose to Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) by 15 percentage points in a December runoff, after losing by just three points the month before.
All three losses were attributed, in significant part, to drops in black turnout.
The sad part of this is that when it is over, the discussion will be all about the Democrats’ favorite issue: race. The Republicans oppose Obama because he is a Socialist who is destroying our economy and our freedom. He richly deserves to lose all of Congress next year and then get tossed out himself in 2012. But will the Democrats acknowledge that their policies were the problem? Nah, they will blame their losses on Fox News and racist Republicans.
Related Posts
- Dem pollster: Unless they get Democrats interested in this election, they’re going to get smoked
- Study: Liberal Black Candidates Have Huge Effect On White Turnout
- Charlie Cook: Hurricane GOP On The Way
- Bad news for Specter: Phila. turnout appears low in primary voting
- Barone’s Lesson From Georgia: Without Obama On The Ticket, Dems May Have Trouble in 2010
Short URL: http://libertypundits.net/?p=7624
well, we have to waitr & see what happens in NJ, because that will also validate/invalidate the smear campaign Corzine has run.