Another hideously skewed New York Times poll still shows very bad news for Obama
Posted by Bill Dupray
on Jul 29 2009 Filed under Politics.
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The New York Times/CBS poll is one of the most biased, poorly sampled polls out there and this one is no exception. But if you are going to use a sample that is designed to give the Democrats good numbers, and the numbers still turn out really badly, you know the Dems are in huge trouble.
Here is the news article, which the Times itself acknowledges shows some problems for Obama, the Democrats, and health care.
President Obama’s ability to shape the debate on health care appears to be eroding as opponents aggressively portray the effort as a government-takeover that could limit Americans’ ability to choose their doctor and course of treatment, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Americans are concerned that overhauling the health care system would reduce the quality of their care, increase their out-of-pocket health costs and tax bills and limit their options in choosing doctors, treatment and tests, the poll found. The percentage who describe health care costs as a serious threat to the American economy — a central argument being made by Mr. Obama — has dropped over the past month.
But with any poll, and especially the ones from these guys, you have to look at the entrails to really see what is going on.
First of all the sample. It is not likely voters, the best bellwether, nor is it even registered voters. It is a poll of adults, making it nearly worthless as an accurate predictor. And only 80% of those were even registered to vote.
A separate question was, apparently regardless of whether they were actually registered or not, did they actually vote last year, and for whom did they vote. A full 40% were Obama voters, compared to 27% for McCain, a spread of 13 points. Keeping in mind that Obama actually beat McCain 53-46, only a spread of 7, just the sample of those who voted is off by a factor of 2. When you add in that 26% didn’t vote at all, we see how moronic it is to even call this a poll.
There were 20% who identified themselves as Republicans, 34% of Democrats, and 39% independents. A Gallup poll in June showed 28% of Americans identified themselves as Republicans, with 35% calling themselves Democrats. Once again, the Times poll is off by a factor of 2 in sampling by party affiliation.
Even with all that deck-stacking, the results are still mighty grim for the Blue team.
As background, fully 82% of respondents had health insurance and 75% considered it affordable. A whopping 77% thought Obama’s plan would increase the cost of their personal health care and 76% think he will raise their taxes to pay for it. This is despite that 59% thought the plan itself will be of no benefit to them personally. So their current plan will cost them more, their taxes will be raised and they will get nothing out of it. Hardly good selling points.
As for the effects on the economy, not much love there either. Fully 81% are concerned that the plan will result in employers laying people off due to the additional costs.
As for the effects on their own health care, 62% aren’t buying Obama’s big lie that they will be able to keep their current doctor, 69% are concerned that the quality of their health care will get worse, and 68% think their access to medical tests and treatment would be limited.
So the Democrats have their work cut out for them over the August break selling this steamer of a bill. There is lot of other bad news in the polls on other issues like the Stimulus (it hasn’t done jack to spur the economy) as well as questions about Afghanistan and Iraq.
The big Hope and Change question also fell dismally flat for The One: 33% expect the recession to last at least a year and a stunning 53% think it will last for an additional 2 or more years.
If they don’t surprise us all and turn this economy around in the next year, they are toast in the midterms.
Related Posts
- New York Times Trashes Obama’s Health Care Plan
- New York Times: Is Reid’s ‘doctors’ fix’ defeat a harbinger of things to come?
- New York Times Shocker: Only 31% of Whites Have Favorable Opinion of Obama
- CNN Poll: Obama Hemorrhaging, Not Healing Democrats
- Brand new PJM poll shows Brown up by 9.6 (not the same poll as the other from earlier with the same results)
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