2010 numbers look bleak for Senate Democrats
Posted by Bill Dupray
on Nov 8 2009 Filed under Politics.
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NPR is wringing its hands . . . with good reason. Let’s look at their list of Senate races and see how much good news is there for the Dems.
Democratic leader Harry Reid is woefully unpopular in Nevada. Six Republicans are competing for the chance to topple him the way GOP Sen. John Thune of South Dakota did to then-Democratic leader Tom Daschle in 2004.
RCP has both Republicans Lowden and Tarkanian beating Reid.
Let’s keep track. So far we are R-1, D-0.
There are three open seats vacated by Democrats.
The GOP is going after three Democratic-held seats filled with appointees after Obama chose sitting senators for his administration. Sen. Michael Bennet in Colorado [Republican Norton leads by double-digits] is seeking his first full term; Sens. Ted Kaufman of Delaware, who has Vice President Joe Biden’s old seat [Republican Mike Castle leads Beau Biden by 5, if the latter even runs - if not it's Castle's in a walk], and Roland Burris of Illinois, who has Obama’s old seat [Republican Kirk lead Giannoulias by 7], aren’t running.
That makes a total of R-4, D-0.
As for incumbent Democrats, the numbers are also pretty bleak.
Republicans also have in their sights Democratic Sens. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas [she trails all 4 Republican challengers], a state John McCain won last fall; Chris Dodd in Connecticut, hampered by a mortgage controversy [Simmons leads Dodd by 6]; Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania, the party-switching former Republican [Toomey leads Specter by 2]; and Barbara Boxer in California, a frequent GOP target [Boxer is probably safe, leading Fiorina by 10].
So that makes R-7, D-1 in flipping Democrat-held seats.
But NPR bravely says that the Dems have their own targets. Let’s see how vulnerable these GOP seats might be.
Democrats want to pick up seats left open by retiring GOP senators in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio. They also are seeking to overtake scandal-scarred Republican Sen. David Vitter of Louisiana and are eyeing GOP Sen. Richard Burr in North Carolina, where Obama won last fall.
In Florida, both Republicans Crist and Rubio lead the Democrat Meek by double-digits in the Florida Senate race.
R-8, D-1.
In Kentucky, the Republican, Trey Grayson, runs ahead of or even with the two Democrat challengers.
Call that a toss-up. R-8, D-1, Toss-up-1
Missouri is a dead heat between Blunt (R) and Carnahan (D).
R-8, D-1, Toss-up-2
New Hampshire shows Republican Ayotte with a 7 point lead.
R-9, D-1, Toss-up-2
In Ohio, the polls show a toss-up.
R-9, D-1, Toss-up-3
Republican David Vitter lead Melancon by 11 in Louisiana, and Burr leads Marshall by double-digits in North Carolina.
R-11, D-1, Toss-up-3
The Senate has 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus most of the time with the Dems.
If the Dems lose the seven seats and the GOP holds all of theirs, the Senate will be 51 Dems, 47 Republicans, and the 2 independents. That will not only make it extremely difficult for Obama to ram through any earth-shattering legislation as he will be nowhere near filibuster-proof, he may have difficulty even getting a bare majority to pass anything.
Charlie Cook says that if you think 2010 looks bleak for the Democrats, wait until you see 2012 and 2014.
With Democrats having just short of twice the number of exposed seats as Republicans up in 2012 and 2014 — 43 vs. 22 — it is important for Democrats to hold the line and, if possible, expand on their majority in 2010. When their big classes elected in 2006 and 2008 come around in the next two elections, they might be hanging on for dear life. Conversely for Republicans, if they chip away a few seats this time, it increases their odds of retaking their majority.
Looks like Tuesday’s election may have been the start of a new era of Hope and Change, Republican-style.
Related Posts
- Democrats’ 2010 Senate prospects dimming
- “There is a real chance that Democrats won’t flip any GOP Senate seats”
- Democrats’ Poll Numbers Cratering
- 2010 Colorado Senate: Norton Runs Best Against Democrats
- Stunningly bad poll numbers for Obama and Democrats
Short URL: http://libertypundits.net/?p=8453
You forgot North Dakota.. If sitting Governor runs against Dorgan, he will probably win.
Is that contest likely?
Kirsten Gillibrand could very well face a tough fight to keep her United States Senate seat. That is if the Rockefeller Republicans can get a good candidate to run against her. What opponents to Democrats need to bring up is the difference between the wages of persons leaving “Blue” States vs those moving in. As a Sales and Use Tax Expert they have major budget problems because people are moving because at least 10% of gross is going to property taxes, 7% to sales taxes, 15-28% to the federal government and about 7 to 10% to state income tax. That not counting the 15.2% going to social security (I am counting both sides of the 7.65%). No one has monies to live on. No wonder they what FREE health care.
My mother’s family Bilow (fka Boileau) has lived in what is now the 23th New York Congressional District since they received from the State of New York land grants in northern Clinton County New York. Amable had joined the Continental Army during its invasion of Canada. He and other French Canadians had not forgiving the English for their conquest of New France during the French and Indian War. Several French Canadians joined either the First or Second Canadian Regiments. The Second Canadian Regiment would service throughout the war as “Congress’ Own.” They had no state in which they could receive supplies or recruits from. Thus Congress allowed them to recruit from all the colonies. Plus the French Catholic Bishop of Quebec Briand had excommunicated them for their treason. When they retreated from Canada with the rest of the Canadian Department they also brought their families along. From that point they were Refugees.
Engagements
Defense of Canada
Northern New Jersey
Defense of Philadelphia (Brandywine and Germantown)
New Jersey 1780
New York 1781
Yorktown
Lieutenant Amable Boileau an original member of the Society of Cincinnati
His son Private Amable Boileau (joined the Regiment in 1790)
The Bilow (fka Boileau)(name changed by teachers in Clinton County) have basically been farmers for those that stayed in the North Country. Others have moved on to all parts of this great country.
The problem with New France was not its people. They were small in numbers and very few French women crossed the Atlantic. The Nation State of France controlled almost all commercial activities of the colony. They also allowed only Catholics to settle in New France. They had Solid Military Leadership under General Montcalm and others. They were able to win battles early in the French and Indian War. It took equal Solid Military Leadership under General Wolfe for the British to win. But it was the English commercial activities that helped them to success at the end. Those commercial activities let men try different activities some failed but many were very successful. Those successes have made the United States of America the greatest country in the world.
John E. Swab
185 Blackberry Run
Fayetteville, GA. 30214
404-723-1698
Wow, you are right. In a poll from July http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/morning-fix/073109morning-fix-house-democr.html Dorgan gets trounced by Hoeven 53-36. Maybe we add that to the pile too.